![]() Marion Kirabo, a 23-year-old law student in Uganda, helped lead protests against a proposed increase in tuition fees at Makerere University in Kampala last year. This growing demand for democracy among the young is evident across the continent, whether in the peaceful protests that toppled Omar al-Bashir, the long-standing dictator of Sudan, or that have pushed Ethiopia to abandon one-party rule. Educated youngsters are more likely to want democratic government, and to reject alternatives such as one-party rule than their uneducated peers. There are many more reasons to invest in schools than simply to tame population growth. If African countries were rapidly to expand their provision of schooling for girls the continent’s total population might peak around 1.9bn in 2070 before falling to below 1.8bn by the end of the century, according to Mr Lutz. This falls to about four for women who have finished primary school and to about two for those who have finished secondary school. African women with no formal education have, on average, six or more children. This matters because few things have a stronger influence over fertility rates than education. In Ethiopia, for instance, primary-school enrolment has risen to 100% from 65% in 2003, though attendance only stands at 61%. The statistic is slightly misleading, since the percentage of children regularly attending schools is lower, though improving. In the 1970s little more than half of children in sub-Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school. It also highlights the urgency of getting even more of them into school. But that underestimates the impact of a big jump in the number of girls who are now going to school across large parts of the continent, argues Wolfgang Lutz, a demographer at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis near Vienna. It reckons that the rate, which has dropped to about 4.4 from 6.7 in 1980, will take another 30 years to fall below three. The UN expects Africa’s population to double again between 20, to 4.3bn people, or 39% of the world’s total and that fertility rates (the average number of children that women will have over their lives) will fall slowly. ![]() Yet demographic forecasts of coming decades diverge in a way that could be crucial. Among these is Malcolm Potts, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who argued in a paper in 2013 that “the Sahel could become the first part of planet Earth that suffers large-scale starvation and escalating conflict as a growing human population outruns diminishing natural resources.” Ethiopia population 2050 full#That’s why, in its road map adopted by African heads of state and government in January 2017, the African Union invited the latter to “ take full advantage of the demographic dividend,” defined as “ the potential that can result when a relatively large share of a country’s population is of working age due to a decrease in fertility.”These economic opportunities can only be created if there is “ sufficient investment in health, autonomy, education, and employment through public action and involvement by the private sector,” warns the African Union.As a result, some doomsayers are dusting off the theories of Thomas Malthus, who argued in 1798 that a growing human population would starve because it would outstrip the supply of food. Conversely, if the demographic transition is supported via strong measures for youth training and employment, through both public policy and private sector involvement, it is an incredible opportunity for the continent’s development. Ethiopia population 2050 driver#If nothing is done in the coming decades to stimulate the creation of high-quality jobs and rein in demographic growth, rampant youth unemployment and the multiplication of precarious jobs could represent a driver of serious social protest and forced mobility. This figure is as high as 97.9% in West Africa. The most recent report by the International Labour Organization ( ILO) on the topic, published in 2018, indicates that 94.9% of people between the ages of 15 and 24 in Africa work in the informal economy. Even among those who do have a job, the vast majority are in the informal economy. Today, World Bank figures show that young people represent 60% of the unemployed population in Africa. ![]() Most importantly, half of that population will be less than 25 years old, which raises the urgent question of whether its economy has the capacity to absorb the millions of new arrivals that will soon flood its job market. ![]() According to recent UN forecasts, the continent is expected to double its population by 2050, from 1 billion to nearly 2.4 billion inhabitants. Africa is now facing a major demographical challenge. ![]()
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